Simple visit behavior unifies complex Zika outbreaks

28 Jun 2017  ·  Manrique Pedro D., Johnson Neil F. ·

We analyze the paper of Nathan D. Grubaugh et al. (Nature 546, 401-405, 2017) and find that it does not offer a convincing quantitative explanation for what generated the temporal distribution of human Zika virus (ZIKV) cases shown in their paper (Fig. 1d)... We criticize this aspect because it is this understanding of how human cases develop from day-today and week-to-week within an area such as these Ground Zeros, that policymakers need in order to mitigate future outbreaks. We present results that strongly suggest that the missing piece is everyday human visit-revisit behavior. These results reproduce the human outbreak data in the key areas of Miami in 2016 very well, and give policymakers specific predictions for how changes in human flow through these areas will affect, and hence can be used to mitigate, future ZIka outbreaks in Miami and beyond. read more

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Physics and Society Populations and Evolution