The Reconstruction and Prediction Algorithm of the Fractional TDD for the Local Outbreak of COVID-19
24 Feb 2020
•
Chen Yu
•
Cheng Jin
•
Jiang Xiaoying
•
Xu Xiang
From late December, 2019, the novel Corona-Virus began to spread in the
mainland of China. For predicting the trend of the Corona Virus spread, several
time delay dynamic systems (TDD) are proposed...In this paper, we establish a
novel fractional time delay dynamic system (FTDD) to describe the local
outbreak of COVID-19. The fractional derivative is introduced to account for
the sub-diffusion process of the confirmed and cured peoples growth. Based on
the public health data by the government, we propose a stable reconstruction
algorithm of the coefficients. The reconstructed coefficients are used to
predict the trend of the Corona-Virus. The numerical results are in good
agreement with the public data.(read more)