1 code implementation • 3 May 2024 • Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Frederik Mølkjær Andersen, Samir Bhatt
We also demonstrate how to combine our model with a deterministic approximation, such that longer term projections can be generated that still incorporate the uncertainty from the early growth phase of the epidemic.
1 code implementation • 17 Jan 2023 • Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall, Thomas House
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting.
1 code implementation • 11 May 2020 • Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Paul Dark, Rajenki Das, Elizabeth Fearon, Timothy Felton, Martyn Fyles, Nick Gent, Ian Hall, Thomas House, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Lorenzo Pellis, Robert Sawko, Andrew Ustianowski, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy.
Populations and Evolution Physics and Society
1 code implementation • 31 Mar 2020 • Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made.
Populations and Evolution
