Search Results for author: José Luis Montiel Olea

Found 4 papers, 1 papers with code

Double Robustness of Local Projections and Some Unpleasant VARithmetic

no code implementations15 May 2024 José Luis Montiel Olea, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Eric Qian, Christian K. Wolf

The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1.

Decision Theory for Treatment Choice Problems with Partial Identification

no code implementations29 Dec 2023 José Luis Montiel Olea, Chen Qiu, Jörg Stoye

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification, revealing important theoretical and practical challenges but also interesting research opportunities.

On the Robustness to Misspecification of $α$-Posteriors and Their Variational Approximations

no code implementations16 Apr 2021 Marco Avella Medina, José Luis Montiel Olea, Cynthia Rush, Amilcar Velez

To make this point, we derive a Bernstein-von Mises theorem showing convergence in total variation distance of $\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations to limiting Gaussian distributions.

Local Projection Inference is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think

1 code implementation27 Jul 2020 José Luis Montiel Olea, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Applied macroeconomists often compute confidence intervals for impulse responses using local projections, i. e., direct linear regressions of future outcomes on current covariates.

regression valid

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