Convergence to the Equilibrium State in an Outbreak: When Can Growth Rates Accurately be Measured?

no code implementations • 2 Feb 2023 • Adam Mielke, Lasse Engbo Christiansen

We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark.

Fundamental Lack of Information in Observed Disease and Hospitalization Data

no code implementations • 25 Jan 2023 • Adam Mielke, Lasse Engbo Christiansen

We present a proof based on SEIR-models that shows it is impossible to identify the level of under reporting based on traditional observables of the disease dynamics alone.

Evaluation of diagnostic test procedures for SARS-CoV-2 using latent class models: comparison of antigen test kits and sampling for PCR testing based on Danish national data registries

no code implementations • 21 Dec 2021 • Jacob Stærk-Østergaard, Carsten Kirkeby, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Michael Asger Andersen, Camilla Holten Møller, Marianne Voldstedlund, Matthew J. Denwood

We found that the specificity of both tests is very high in our data sample (>99. 7%), while the sensitivity of PCR sampling was estimated to be 95. 7% (95% CI: 92. 8-98. 4%) and that of the antigen test kits used in Denmark over the study period was estimated at 53. 8% (95% CI: 49. 8-57. 9%).

Specificity